Indicators · The combined signal
Market bust and job losses together
Normal
Jobs signals on: none. Market signals on: none.
US recessions Periods when this signal was on
What it measures
Whether a market signal (technology stocks, corporate credit or financial stress) and a jobs signal (unemployment, jobless claims, permanent job losses, hiring, office jobs, factory and warehouse jobs, jobs outside care or Swedish unemployment) are on at the same time.
Why it matters
The worst outcomes in the model need both: a bust that cuts spending and investment, and a labour market that turns and does not recover. Which of them follows depends on how governments respond.
When it triggers
Triggers when at least one market signal and one jobs signal are on.
Past triggers
Replaying the rule on the data from Jan 1990, it triggered in Oct 1990, Nov 2000, Dec 2007, May 2010, Mar 2020, Mar 2023.