Indicators
20 signals from public data, each checked against a fixed trigger. The long US series are replayed month by month from Jan 1990, so each chart shows when its signal would have triggered in the past.
A signal is triggered when its condition holds, and stays so until the condition clears. Close to triggering means it is near its threshold. The same rules decide when the watcher raises an alert.
The combined signal
Jobs
- US unemployment4.1%Normal
- US jobless claims202kNormal
- Permanent job losses25%Normal
- US hiring3.2%Normal
- Office jobs+0.3%Normal
- Factory and warehouse jobs+0.7%Normal
- Jobs outside care+57kClose to triggering
- Labour's share of income93.4Triggered
- People leaving the workforce−0.47 ptsTriggered
- Swedish unemployment8.9%Normal
Markets and credit
- Technology stocks−1%Normal
- Corporate credit2.8%Normal
- Financial stress−0.91Normal
- Long-run inflation expectations2.33%Normal