Indicators · The labour market
Swedish unemployment
Normal Downturn signal
8.6% in Sep 2026. The three-month average is 0.27 percentage points above its low of the previous twelve months.
The rise above the low of the previous twelve months is higher than 52% of the readings since 2002.
Periods when this signal was on
What it measures
Sweden's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate from the labour force survey, and how far its three-month average has risen above its low of the previous twelve months.
Why it matters
Office work is a larger share of jobs in Sweden than in the US, the euro area or China, so AI may affect jobs there earlier than elsewhere.
When it triggers
Triggers when the three-month average is 0.6 percentage points or more above its low of the previous twelve months. The threshold is higher than the US one because the Swedish survey varies more from month to month.
Where it fits
Unemployment starts to rise. The argument predicts: Unemployment starts to rise within a few months of a market crash, and the jobs lost in work exposed to AI are not regained.
Other possible causes. Every recession triggers these signals, and most of the jobs lost are later regained.
A trigger can count as evidence for point 5 of our view, a recession in which spending fails.
The prediction
Open Set 8 Oct 2026
- If we are wrongtriggers, then stops
- Now0.27 pointsSep 2026
- Start0.37 pointsAug 2026
- If we are right0.60 points or aboveby Dec 2026
- Severe2.78 pointsin the model, if our view is right
If our view is right, this signal triggers by Dec 2026: the rise in Swedish unemployment above its low of the past year reaches 0.60 points or above. The date comes from the model, in which the rise first reaches that level in the last quarter of 2026. In the model this measure reaches 2.78 points by Sep 2028.
If it triggers and then stops being triggered on two consecutive readings, that counts against our view, which expects a downturn to deepen for several years once it begins. The deadline refers to the period the data cover. If it passes without a reading of 0.60 points or above, that counts somewhat against our view.
When the rule was set
The rule was set on 24 Sep 2026, when it was not triggered. Its threshold is chosen by the author.
How often it has been on
Applied to past data at the end of each month from Jun 2002, using only what had been published by then, it was on in 20% of months to 2019 and 45% since 2020. More than six months from any US recession as dated by the National Bureau of Economic Research, it triggered in Sep 2003, Apr 2019 and Sep 2023. The rule was set with these years in view, so these figures cannot show how well it predicts.
Past triggers
On the data published at the time, it triggered in Sep 2003, Dec 2008, Apr 2019 and Sep 2023.