AI, work and the next downturn
Machines are taking over tasks that people are paid to do. As they do, income moves from wages to the owners of what stays scarce: land, location, power. This site sets out the argument, tracks the evidence as it arrives, and lets you run the model behind it.
Key facts
- 102%of net US job growth from Aug 2024 to Aug 2026 came from health care and social assistance. The rest of the economy shrank.
- 105 bpis the extra yield France paid over Germany on ten-year debt on 24 Sep 2026, against a high of 110 since 2019.
- 93.4is labour's share of US business output (2017 = 100), the lowest since records began in 1947, down 3.3 points in a year.
- 94%of the fall in employment among Americans aged 25–54 since Sep 2024 is people leaving the workforce, who are not counted as unemployed. In 2007–10 it was 12%.
- 24%of the US workforce is out of work at the peak in the model after a dot-com-sized bust, with AI taking jobs and today's policies in place. The unemployment rate shows 15%.
- 4.8×is how far US wages measured in durable goods and measured in shelter diverged between 1964 and 2024.
Where things stand
3 of 20 indicators have triggered: Labour's share of income, People leaving the workforce, France's borrowing costs. Each indicator is checked against a fixed trigger. About the indicators
The combined signal
Jobs
- US unemployment4.1%Normal
- US jobless claims202kNormal
- Permanent job losses25%Normal
- US hiring3.2%Normal
- Office jobs+0.3%Normal
- Factory and warehouse jobs+0.7%Normal
- Jobs outside care+57kClose to triggering
- Labour's share of income93.4Triggered
- People leaving the workforce−0.47 ptsTriggered
- Swedish unemployment8.9%Normal
Markets and credit
- Technology stocks−1%Normal
- Corporate credit2.8%Normal
- Financial stress−0.91Normal
- Long-run inflation expectations2.33%Normal
Government bonds and interest rates
The guide
The argument and the evidence in nine short sections.
The model
Choose the shock and the policies, and see what follows in four economies.
The indicators
The data that would show it early, each against a fixed trigger, back to 1990.