Indicators · Jobs
Office jobs
Normal
+0.3% over the six months to Aug 2026, against +0.4% for all jobs.
US recessions Periods when this signal was on
What it measures
US jobs in information and in professional and business services, the industries most exposed to AI, over six months, against all jobs.
Why it matters
If AI replaces office work outside a recession, these jobs fall while the rest of the economy still grows.
When it triggers
Triggers when these jobs fall 1% or more over six months while total jobs do not fall.
Past triggers
Replaying the rule on the data from Jan 1990, it triggered in Nov 2023.