Indicators · Jobs
Jobs outside care
Close to triggering
+57 thousand jobs outside health care and social assistance over the twelve months to Aug 2026, against +603 thousand in all.
US recessions Periods when this signal was on
What it measures
US jobs added over twelve months outside health care and social assistance, against all jobs added.
Why it matters
Health care and social assistance have carried US job growth. They are mostly paid for by the state, so in a downturn the budget decides whether they keep hiring.
When it triggers
Triggers when jobs outside care shrink over twelve months while total jobs grow.
Past triggers
Replaying the rule on the data from Jan 1990, it triggered in Apr 1992, May 2001, Dec 2003, Mar 2008, Sep 2010, Jun 2025.