Indicators · The labour market
Factory and warehouse jobs
Normal Context
These jobs rose 0.6% over the six months to Oct 2026; all jobs rose 0.3%.
The change over six months is higher than 69% of the readings since 1990.
US recessions Periods when this signal was on
What it measures
US jobs in manufacturing and in transport and warehousing over six months, compared with all jobs.
Why it matters
Robots may take over physical work later than AI takes over office work. If they do, these jobs would fall while total jobs grow. A surge in imports has the same effect, as in 2001–03, when imports from China rose sharply.
When it triggers
Triggers when these jobs fall 1.5% or more over six months while total jobs do not fall.
Where it fits
Unemployment starts to rise. The argument predicts: Unemployment starts to rise within a few months of a market crash, and the jobs lost in work exposed to AI are not regained.
Other possible causes. Every recession triggers these signals, and most of the jobs lost are later regained.
When the rule was set
The rule was set on 24 Sep 2026, when it was not triggered. Its threshold is chosen by the author. A trigger should be read alongside news of robots doing physical work.
How often it has been on
Applied to past data at the end of each month from Jan 1990, using only what had been published by then, it was on in 3% of months to 2019 and 0% since 2020. More than six months from any US recession as dated by the National Bureau of Economic Research, it triggered once, in Nov 2002. The rule was set with these years in view, so these figures cannot show how well it predicts.
Past triggers
On the data published at the time, it triggered in May 2001 and Nov 2002.