Indicators · Jobs
Factory and warehouse jobs
Normal
+0.7% over the six months to Aug 2026, against +0.4% for all jobs.
US recessions Periods when this signal was on
What it measures
US jobs in manufacturing and in transport and warehousing over six months, against all jobs.
Why it matters
Robots reach physical work later than AI reaches office work. A fall in these jobs while the rest of the economy grows is what their arrival would look like. A trade shock looks the same: this is how 2001–03 appears, when imports from China surged.
When it triggers
Triggers when these jobs fall 1.5% or more over six months while total jobs do not fall.
Past triggers
Replaying the rule on the data from Jan 1990, it triggered in Apr 2001, Oct 2002.