Indicators · Jobs
US unemployment
Normal
4.1% in Aug 2026. The three-month average is 0.07 points below its low of the previous twelve months.
US recessions Periods when this signal was on
What it measures
The US unemployment rate, and how far its three-month average has risen above its lowest point of the previous twelve months.
Why it matters
A rise of half a point has marked the start of every US recession since 1970 (the Sahm rule). Unemployment feeds on itself: lost wages cut spending, and lower spending cuts more jobs.
When it triggers
Triggers when the three-month average is 0.5 points or more above its low of the previous twelve months.
Past triggers
Replaying the rule on the data from Jan 1990, it triggered in Oct 1990, Jul 2001, Jul 2003, Feb 2008, Apr 2020, Jul 2024.