Indicators · Markets and credit
Long-run inflation expectations
Normal
2.33% (+0 basis points over a month), as of 24 Sep 2026.
US recessions Periods when this signal was on
What it measures
The inflation rate US markets expect for the five years that start five years from now.
Why it matters
If expectations fall, falling prices make debts heavier and real interest rates rise when they should fall, as in the 1930s. If they rise, markets doubt that inflation will be held down.
When it triggers
Triggers on a large move within a month (at least 0.3 points, more when markets are volatile), or when expectations leave the range 1.5–3%.
Past triggers
Replaying the rule on the data from Jan 1990, it triggered in Jul 2003, Oct 2008, Jun 2016, Feb 2020.