Indicators · Public finances and policy
France's borrowing costs
Triggered since 2 Oct 2026 Context
France's ten-year yield was 151 basis points above Germany's and its five-year yield 108 basis points above, on 6 Nov 2026. Over the three months to Aug 2026, the change in its ten-year yield was 16.8 basis points above the median euro-area member's, past the 13.3 at which the euro-area rule triggers for France.
France's monthly ten-year yield over Germany's is higher than 97% of the readings since 1999.
As a monthly average, France's ten-year yield over Germany's was higher in 2011–12 than at any time since.
What it measures
How far France's ten-year and five-year government bond yields are above Germany's, daily, and how its ten-year yield compares with other euro-area members'.
Why it matters
If France's five-year yield over Germany's rises as fast as its ten-year yield over Germany's, investors may expect a crisis sooner. France's moves since 2024 coincide with French political events.
When it triggers
The rules trigger when, over three months (63 trading days), France's ten-year yield over Germany's rises 10 basis points or more and its five-year yield over Germany's rises at least 90% as much; when the ten-year yield over Germany's of France, the Netherlands or Finland moves more in a week than 99% of weekly moves in the previous two years (at least 8 basis points); or when, over a month, France's ten-year yield over Germany's rises 8 basis points or more and so does the Netherlands' or Finland's.
Where it fits
Public finances and government borrowing costs. The argument predicts: Receipts from taxes on wages fall first; then the extra return investors demand to hold government debt rises in countries whose budgets rely on taxes on wages, while growth slows. At the pace measured so far this is years away.
Other possible causes. For taxes on wages, changes in tax law; for borrowing costs, budget politics in one country, or a worldwide rise in bond yields while employment is stable.
When the rule was set
Its five rules were set on 24 Sep 2026. That day, one was already triggered and one was close to triggering. Two of its thresholds are chosen by the author. The rule on France's five-year yield over Germany's is triggered now; when it was set, it was close to triggering.
In the news
- France's ten-year yield touches about 5.08% on 22 Oct, highest since 2002; spread over Germany ~160 basis points
- Finland's ten-year spread over Germany widens 10bp in a month to +40bp (9 Oct) as France's widens 45bp
- France's 10-year spread over Germany hits 152bp on 2 Oct, widest since 2011; +38bp in a week
- France's 5-year spread over Germany +77bp in 3 months to +102bp (1 Oct), outpacing the 10-year's +65bp
- France's 10Y spread over Bunds hits +128 bp on 30 Sep, +18 bp in a week; 2027 budget presented 1 Oct
- France's 10Y spread over Bunds hits +119 bp on 29 Sep, widest since at least 2019; 2027 budget due 1 Oct
- France 10Y spread over Bunds +110 bp on 23 Sep, widest since 2019 (prior high +104); +25 bp in a month
Source: Sveriges Riksbank.