Indicators · Markets and credit
Financial stress
Normal
−0.91 in the week of 18 Sep 2026 (0 is normal).
US recessions Periods when this signal was on
What it measures
The St Louis Fed's weekly index of stress in US financial markets, built from interest rates, spreads and volatility. Zero is normal.
Why it matters
Stress spreads between banks and between countries. Rescues and deposit insurance contain it; without them it becomes a banking crisis.
When it triggers
Triggers at 1.0, one standard deviation above normal.
Past triggers
Replaying the rule on the data from Jan 1990, it triggered in Jul 2002, Aug 2007, May 2010, Sep 2011, Mar 2020.