Indicators · Public finances and policy
Euro-area borrowing costs
Triggered since Aug 2026, on the data published at the time Context
France triggered on Aug 2026 data.
| Ten-year yield over Germany's, basis points | Share of months since 1999 when it was lower, % | Change in the ten-year yield over three months less the median member's, basis points | Its threshold, basis points | Triggered | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 101 | 97 | +16.8 | 13.3 | Yes |
| Belgium | 57 | 70 | +3.8 | 13.0 | |
| Germany | — | — | +1.7 | 21.4 | |
| Spain | 45 | 36 | +3.3 | 43.3 | |
| Italy | 80 | 37 | +2.5 | 59.4 | |
| Finland | 33 | 68 | +0.0 | 17.5 | |
| Greece | 76 | 32 | −0.2 | 278.5 | |
| Portugal | 38 | 34 | −0.2 | 92.3 | |
| Netherlands | 10 | 24 | −0.2 | 16.7 | |
| Ireland | 16 | 19 | −1.9 | 88.4 | |
| Austria | 23 | 30 | −0.8 | 13.2 |
Periods when this signal was on
A rise shared by all members cancels out, so only a member whose borrowing costs rise faster than the others' can trigger the rule. OECD monthly data, published about six weeks late.
What it measures
The ten-year government bond yields of eleven euro-area members.
Why it matters
Doubts about one government's finances show as its borrowing costs rising faster than other members'.
When it triggers
Triggers when any member's ten-year yield rises more than the median member's over three months, by a margin larger than 95% of that member's margins from 1999 to 2019 (for Greece, from 2001).
Where it fits
Public finances and government borrowing costs. The argument predicts: Receipts from taxes on wages fall first; then the extra return investors demand to hold government debt rises in countries whose budgets rely on taxes on wages, while growth slows. At the pace measured so far this is years away.
Other possible causes. For taxes on wages, changes in tax law; for borrowing costs, budget politics in one country, or a worldwide rise in bond yields while employment is stable.
When the rule was set
The rule was set on 8 Oct 2026, when it was close to triggering. On August data, France's ten-year yield had risen 13.2 basis points more than the median member's over three months, just below its threshold of 13.3 basis points.
How often it has been on
Applied to past data at the end of each month from May 1999, using only what had been published by then, it was on in 31% of months to 2019 and 20% since 2020. More than six months from any US recession as dated by the National Bureau of Economic Research, it triggered in Sep 2004, Sep 2022 and Aug 2024. The rule was set with these years in view, so these figures cannot show how well it predicts.
Past triggers
On the data published at the time, it triggered in Sep 2004, Feb 2009, Jun 2020, Sep 2022 and Aug 2024.
In the news
Source: OECD via FRED.