US hiring

Normal

Hires were 3.2% of jobs in Jul 2026 (lowest of the previous two years: 3.1%). Continuing claims are 10% lower than a year earlier.

Hires, % of jobs

Continuing claims, % change on a year earlier

US recessions Periods when this signal was on

What it measures

The US hiring rate (hires as a share of jobs) and continuing claims for unemployment insurance.

When firms stop hiring, people who lose a job stay out of work longer, and a temporary loss becomes a lasting one.

Triggers when the hiring rate is at its lowest in two years while continuing claims are 10% or more higher than a year earlier.

Replaying the rule on the data from Jan 1990, it triggered in Dec 2007, Mar 2020, Mar 2023.