Indicators · Markets and credit

Corporate credit

Normal

United States 2.80% (+0 basis points over three months); Euro area 2.77% (+12 basis points over three months), as of 24 Sep 2026.

US recessions Periods when this signal was on

What it measures

The extra yield investors demand on high-yield corporate bonds in the US and the euro area, over government bonds.

Why it matters

Losses on lending to the AI build-out and on private credit would show here first. Wider spreads make borrowing dearer for every firm.

When it triggers

Triggers when a spread widens by 1.5 percentage points or more in three months.

Past triggers

Replaying the rule on the data from Jan 1990, it has not triggered.

Source: ICE BofA indices via FRED.