Indicators · Government bonds and interest rates
Expected interest rates
Close to triggering
United States 5.33%, Sweden 3.42%, Germany 3.78% (latest 24 Sep 2026).
Forward rates from government bond yields at five and ten years.
What it measures
The interest rate markets expect five to ten years ahead, taken from government bond yields in the US, Sweden and Germany.
Why it matters
This is where the forces in the research reach prices: investment in AI and government borrowing push expected rates up; owners of the new income saving more push them down.
When it triggers
Triggers when the rate moves within a week by more than 99% of weekly moves in the previous two years (at least 15 basis points).
Source: US Treasury; Sveriges Riksbank.