Indicators · Market context
Expected interest rates
Normal Context
United States 5.08%, Sweden 3.18%, Germany 3.45% (latest 6 Nov 2026).
What it measures
The interest rate markets expect five to ten years ahead, taken from government bond yields in the US, Sweden and Germany.
Why it matters
Government borrowing and a fast investment boom push expected rates up; if those who receive the income from AI save more of it, that pushes them down.
When it triggers
Triggers when the rate moves within a week by more than 99% of weekly moves in the previous two years (at least 15 basis points).
Where it fits
Market context. Market prices move for many reasons, and in the model, markets respond to AI's effect on work only after a delay.
When the rule was set
Its three rules were set on 24 Sep 2026. That day, none was triggered or close to triggering.
In the news
Source: US Treasury; Sveriges Riksbank.