Indicators · Market context
Sudden moves in bond yields
Close to triggering Context
United States 4.86%, Germany 3.25%, Sweden 2.97%, France 4.77%, United Kingdom 5.16%, Japan 2.68% (latest 9 Nov 2026).
What it measures
Ten-year government bond yields in the US, Germany, Sweden, France, the UK and Japan.
Why it matters
Long-term rates set mortgage costs and the cost of government borrowing. When markets react to news faster, yields move in larger single-day jumps.
When it triggers
Triggers on a one-day move larger than on 99.5% of days in the previous two years (at least 12 basis points), or when volatility over 20 days is higher than on 95% of days in the previous two years.
Where it fits
Market context. Market prices move for many reasons, and in the model, markets respond to AI's effect on work only after a delay.
When the rule was set
Its 12 rules were set on 24 Sep 2026. That day, two were already triggered and three were close to triggering.
In the news
Source: US Treasury; Sveriges Riksbank.