Indicators · Markets and credit

Technology stocks

Normal

1.1% below its high of the past year (24 Sep 2026).

Fall from the highest close of the past year, %

US recessions Periods when this signal was on

What it measures

The Nasdaq Composite index against its highest close of the past year.

Why it matters

A fall in AI and technology shares is the first sign of a bust in AI investment. Falling share prices also cut spending by the households that own them.

When it triggers

Triggers at a fall of 20% from the one-year high.

Past triggers

Replaying the rule on the data from Jan 1990, it triggered in Aug 1990, Aug 1998, Apr 2000, Feb 2008, Mar 2020, Apr 2022.

Source: Nasdaq via FRED.