Indicators · Jobs
People leaving the workforce
Triggered since Aug 2026
80.4% of Americans aged 25–54 were in work in Aug 2026. Over two years the rate is down 0.47 points, while their unemployment rate is up 0.17 points.
US recessions Periods when this signal was on
What it measures
The share of Americans aged 25–54 in work, against their unemployment rate, over two years.
Why it matters
People who lose their job and stop looking for work are not counted as unemployed. When employment falls this way, the unemployment rate misses it, and so does support that starts when unemployment rises.
When it triggers
Triggers when the employment rate of 25–54-year-olds is 0.4 points or more lower than two years earlier while their unemployment rate is no more than 0.2 points higher (three-month averages).
Past triggers
Replaying the rule on the data from Jan 1990, it triggered in Jan 2004, May 2011, Mar 2022, Aug 2026.