Indicators · Jobs
US jobless claims
Normal
The four-week average is 202 thousand a week, 2% above its low of the past year (week of 19 Sep 2026).
US recessions Periods when this signal was on
What it measures
New claims for unemployment insurance, averaged over four weeks, against their lowest level of the past year.
Why it matters
The earliest weekly reading of layoffs in the largest economy.
When it triggers
Triggers when the four-week average is 25% or more above its low of the previous 52 weeks.
Past triggers
Replaying the rule on the data from Jan 1990, it triggered in Oct 1990, Nov 2000, Jul 2008, Mar 2020, Jun 2023.
Source: US Department of Labor via FRED.