Indicators · Jobs
Permanent job losses
Normal
25.3% of the unemployed in Aug 2026, down 0.8 points on a year earlier.
US recessions Periods when this signal was on
What it measures
People who lost their job for good, as a share of all unemployed Americans.
Why it matters
Temporary layoffs come back when demand returns; permanent losses do not. When firms automate the jobs they cut in a downturn instead of rehiring, this share rises. It rose about 15 points in 2008–10 and fell in 2020, when most layoffs were temporary.
When it triggers
Triggers when the share is 5 points or more higher than a year earlier.
Past triggers
Replaying the rule on the data from Jan 1990, it triggered in May 2001, Oct 2008, Sep 2020.