Indicators · Public finances and policy
The US tariff rate
Chart only
US customs duties were 6.55% of imports of goods and services in Q2 2026.
The rate is higher than 98% of the readings since 1990.
What it measures
US customs duties as a share of imports of goods and services.
Why it matters
Tariffs cut trade in a downturn and raise prices; in the 1930s they made the Depression worse.
Where it fits
The policy response. The argument predicts: Tariffs, spending cuts as unemployment rises, and inflation expectations moving outside their usual range.
Other possible causes. In calm times, tariffs and expected inflation move for reasons unrelated to the argument.