Indicators · Government bonds and interest rates
The premium on US government debt
Triggered since Jul 2026
1.08 percentage points on 2 Oct 2026, up 36 basis points over three months. The highest before this in ten years was 1.08.
US recessions Periods when this signal was on
What it measures
The extra return investors demand to hold ten-year US government bonds instead of a series of short-term ones (the Federal Reserve Board's Kim-Wright estimate).
Why it matters
It is the price markets put on lending to the US government for ten years: the risk of inflation, and of more debt to come than buyers will take without a discount. It sets the floor under mortgage and business borrowing costs.
When it triggers
Triggers at its highest in ten years while rising, or on a rise of half a point or more in three months.
Past triggers
Replaying the rule on the data from Jan 1990, it triggered in Apr 1992, Apr 1994, Apr 1996, May 2001, Aug 2003, Jun 2009, Jul 2013, Dec 2024, Jul 2026.
In the news
Source: Federal Reserve Board via FRED.