Indicators · Energy, housing and credit

US house prices

Normal

+1.9% on a year in Jul 2026.

US recessions Periods when this signal was on

What it measures

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national index of US home prices, change over a year.

Why it matters

Homes are most households' largest asset and banks' largest loans. Over the long run the research on this site expects land to gain as income moves to what stays scarce; in a downturn with rising rates, prices would probably fall first.

When it triggers

Triggers when prices are lower than a year earlier.

Past triggers

Replaying the rule on the data from Jan 1990, it triggered in Nov 1990, Mar 2007, May 2023.

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices via FRED.