Indicators · Energy, housing and credit

US mortgage arrears

Normal

1.86% of loans in Q2 2026, up 0.08 points on a year earlier.

Single-family mortgages 30 days or more past due, % of loans (US commercial banks)

Change over four quarters, percentage points

US recessions Periods when this signal was on

What it measures

Single-family mortgages at US commercial banks that are 30 days or more past due, as a share of all such loans.

Why it matters

When people lose work, mortgage payments are among the first to slip. Arrears started rising in early 2007, before the recession that began that December.

When it triggers

Triggers when the rate is 0.4 points or more higher than a year earlier.

Past triggers

Replaying the rule on the data from Jan 1990, it triggered in Apr 2001, Jan 2007, Oct 2020.

Source: Federal Reserve Board via FRED.