Indicators · Japan and Korea

The yen

Normal

157.8 yen per dollar on 2 Oct 2026. Over a month the yen is up 0.6% against the dollar.

US recessions Periods when this signal was on

What it measures

The number of yen per US dollar, and the yen's change against the dollar over a month.

Why it matters

Investors borrow cheaply in yen to buy assets elsewhere; a sudden rise in the yen forces them to sell, as in August 2024. Japan is also the largest foreign holder of US government debt, and higher returns at home can pull that money back.

When it triggers

Triggers when the yen rises 7% or more against the dollar in a month.

Past triggers

Replaying the rule on the data from Jan 1990, it triggered in Mar 1995, May 1997, Oct 1998, Oct 2008.

Source: Federal Reserve Board via FRED.