Indicators · Energy, housing and credit
US mortgage rates
Triggered since Sep 2026
7.28% in the week of 1 Oct 2026, up 0.85 points over 13 weeks. The highest in the year before was 7.03%.
US recessions Periods when this signal was on
What it measures
The average rate on a new 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in the US (Freddie Mac's weekly survey).
Why it matters
Mortgage rates carry the cost of long-term government borrowing to households. A fast rise cuts what buyers can borrow and, in time, what homes sell for.
When it triggers
Triggers when the rate is 0.5 points or more higher than 13 weeks earlier and above its high of the previous year.
Past triggers
Replaying the rule on the data from Jan 1990, it triggered in Mar 1994, Jun 2013, Nov 2016, Mar 2022, Sep 2026.
In the news
- US 30-year mortgage rate 7.28% on 1 Oct (Freddie Mac), +25 bp in a week, +0.85 pts in 13 weeks; highest since Oct 2023
- US 30-year mortgage rate 7.03% on 24 Sep, first time above 7% since Jan 2025; +0.54 points in 13 weeks
Source: Freddie Mac via FRED.