Indicators · Energy, housing and credit

Bank lending to non-bank lenders

Normal

$2.07 trillion in the week of 23 Sep 2026: 3.7% higher than 13 weeks earlier, 20% higher than a year earlier and 3.8 times their 2019 average.

US recessions Periods when this signal was on

What it measures

Loans from US commercial banks to financial firms that are not banks: private credit funds, business development companies, mortgage lenders and others (Federal Reserve, weekly).

Why it matters

Much of the lending for the AI build-out comes from private credit funds, which borrow in turn from banks. If banks pull these loans back, losses on AI lending reach the rest of the financial system faster.

When it triggers

Triggers when the total falls 3% or more in 13 weeks.

Past triggers

Replaying the rule on the data from Jan 1990, it triggered in Jun 2020.

Source: Federal Reserve Board (H.8) via FRED.