Indicators · Jobs and pay
Graduates' unemployment
Chart only
The unemployment rate of people with a degree was 0.57 times that of high-school graduates in Sep 2026.
The ratio is higher than 87% of the readings since 1992.
What it measures
The unemployment rate of people with a bachelor's degree or more, divided by that of high-school graduates with no college, aged 25 and over.
Why it matters
AI may affect educated office work first. In a recession the less educated usually lose jobs first, so a rise in the ratio outside a recession would reverse the usual pattern.
Where it fits
Jobs in work AI can already do. The argument predicts: Jobs in work AI can already do fall as a share of all jobs while output grows, and graduates fare worse than non-graduates. At the pace measured so far the change is slow, and for a year or two it may stay within the surveys' margin of error.
Other possible causes. Recoveries, in which physical and less-educated work comes back faster after a recession has cut it (2021); a downturn in the technology industry, which cuts information jobs (2001–02).