Indicators · Japan and Korea

Korea's exports

Normal

+71% on a year in Jun 2026. The series is published about three months late.

US recessions Periods when this signal was on

What it measures

The value of South Korea's exports, change over a year (OECD).

Why it matters

SK Hynix and Samsung in South Korea make the memory chips in AI servers; TSMC in Taiwan makes the processors. Most of the hardware for the US build-out is imported, so a collapse in AI investment would show first in Asia's exports.

When it triggers

Triggers when exports are lower than a year earlier, having grown 20% or more on a year at some point in the previous twelve months.

Past triggers

Replaying the rule on the data from Jan 1990, it triggered in Jul 1996, Mar 2001, Nov 2008, Jan 2012, Oct 2022.

Source: OECD via FRED.