Indicators · Energy, housing and credit
Oil prices
Triggered since Sep 2026
$125 a barrel on 6 Oct 2026: 64% higher than three months earlier and 56% higher than its average of the previous three years.
US recessions Periods when this signal was on
What it measures
The price of Brent crude oil against its average of the previous three years, and its change over three and six months.
Why it matters
A fast rise in oil prices pushes up inflation, which stops central banks cutting interest rates quickly when a downturn starts. Speed matters more than the level: Brent stayed above $100 for most of 2011–14 while the world economy grew, after recovering from its collapse in 2008–09. Sudden jumps well above recent prices came with the recessions of 1990 and 2008. The US now exports more oil and oil products than it imports, so Europe and Asia take more of the hit.
When it triggers
Triggers when the price is 25% or more above its average of the previous three years after rising 40% or more in three months, or 60% or more in six.
Past triggers
Replaying the rule on the data from Jan 1990, it triggered in Aug 1990, Sep 1999, Mar 2005, Jun 2008, Feb 2022, Mar 2026.