Riksbank minutes (30 Sep): several members back a November hike; NIER sees policy rate 2.50% in 2027
2 items, from 30 Sep 2026 to 7 Oct 2026, oldest first.
Policy ·
Riksbank minutes (30 Sep): several members back a November hike; NIER sees policy rate 2.50% in 2027
Minutes of the 23 Sep hold at 1.75% show a unanimous board expecting to raise rates more than in June, with at least one member saying they will advocate a first hike at the 4 Nov meeting. The National Institute of Economic Research (30 Sep) forecasts 2.0% at end-2026, 2.50% in 2027 (up 25 bp from August) and 2.75% at end-2028, with inflation above target next year.
Why it matters. Sweden's central bank is preparing to raise rates in November even though unemployment is near 9%, which puts higher loan costs on households just as jobs are scarce.
Next. The Riksbank decides on 4 November; September unemployment and inflation figures come before it.
Sweden's CPIF inflation 1.5% in Sep (flash, 7 Oct), up from 0.7%; excluding energy 0.5%, unchanged
Statistics Sweden's flash estimate puts CPIF inflation at 1.5% in September, up from 0.7% in August, and CPI at 1.1% from 0.3%; prices rose 0.9% in the month. The rise is energy: CPIF excluding energy is 0.5%, unchanged. Economists quoted by DI and SvD expect the Riksbank, at 1.75%, to raise its rate in November.
Why it matters. Swedish inflation doubled in September, but entirely through energy: prices excluding energy rose 0.5% on a year. If the Riksbank raises rates in November on that basis, households with floating-rate mortgages could face higher payments at a time when unemployment is already near 9%.
Next. Statistics Sweden's final September CPI on 14 October, then the Riksbank's November decision.