Latest

Week of 5 Oct

A week of long-bond supply into record-high yields: Japan sells ten- and thirty-year bonds, the US ten- and thirty-year notes and bonds, with the Fed's minutes from its September hike in between. Sweden is still without a government; France's budget reaches the National Assembly floor on 13 October and Moody's reviews France on 23 October.

Mon 5 Oct

• 15:00IMF World Economic Outlook, chapter 3: spillovers from corporate income taxation
  As wages shrink as a share of income, how governments tax company profits decides how they pay their bills.
• 16:00US services survey (ISM) for September
  Services are most US jobs; a weak hiring gauge alongside high prices would tie the Fed's hands.
• Sweden: Magdalena Andersson resumes talks on forming a government (report due 12 Oct)
  Sweden still has no new government, and with it no budget for 2027.

Tue 6 Oct

• 05:35Japan sells ten-year government bonds
  Japan is the largest foreign holder of US government debt; higher yields at home can pull that money back.
• 15:00IMF World Economic Outlook, chapter 2: lessons from cost-of-living crises
  Oil is up two-thirds in three months; the IMF's view shapes how central banks respond to price spikes in a slowdown.

Wed 7 Oct

• UK government bond sale by tender
  Britain's long-term borrowing costs are at their highest since 1998.
• 19:00US ten-year Treasury auction ($39bn)
  A sign of how readily investors still lend to the US government at the highest yields since 2002.
• 20:00Fed minutes from the 15-16 September meeting (the hike)
  Shows whether the Fed is set to raise rates again while job growth slows.

Thu 8 Oct

• 05:35Japan sells thirty-year government bonds
  Thirty-year Japanese yields are near records; a poor sale would add to the global rise in long-term rates.
• 13:30ECB account of its September meeting
  France's borrowing costs over Germany's are the widest since 2011; whether the ECB would step in matters.
• 14:30US weekly jobless claims
  The earliest weekly sign of whether layoffs are picking up.
• 19:00US thirty-year Treasury auction ($22bn)
  Long-term US borrowing costs are at their highest since 2002; this sale tests demand at the very long end.
• St Louis Fed President Musalem speaks
  One of the Fed's rate-setters on whether more increases are needed.

Fri 9 Oct

• 16:00University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations (preliminary, October)
  If households start expecting lasting inflation, the Fed finds it harder to cut in a downturn.
• TSMC September revenue (around 9-10 Oct)
  TSMC makes most AI processors; its monthly sales are the quickest read on AI hardware demand.