France 10Y spread over Bunds +110 bp on 23 Sep, widest since 2019 (prior high +104); +25 bp in a month
14 items, from 24 Sep 2026 to 7 Oct 2026, oldest first.
Markets ·
France 10Y spread over Bunds +110 bp on 23 Sep, widest since 2019 (prior high +104); +25 bp in a month
The spread set a new high after the finance ministry put public debt at 119.3% of GDP this year and 121.7% in 2027, the highest since 1978, with the deficit at 5.4% this year; PM Lecornu's 2027 draft seeks EUR 54bn of cuts (Euronews, 21 Sep), and CNBC's headline says the budget fight threatens to topple another government. The 5Y spread is +67 bp.
Bank of France's Moulin (25 Sep): France can't count on ECB; 10Y at 4.7%, highest since 2008; budget bill 2 Oct
Governor Emmanuel Moulin said the tools to fix France's deficit sit with the government and parliament, and that ECB crisis tools such as the TPI activate only once a country has acted itself. The minority government submits its 2027 budget on 2 Oct, ahead of the April-May 2027 presidential election.
Why it matters. France's central bank chief says the European Central Bank will not bail out French borrowing costs unless the government first fixes its budget, putting the pressure on a divided parliament.
Next. The government's 2027 budget bill, due in parliament on 2 October.
French public debt 119.0% of GDP at end-Q2 2026 (Q1: 117.5%), highest since 1946; +€59.6bn in the quarter
INSEE (29 Sep): Maastricht debt €3,595.5bn, 119.0% of GDP; the central state added €53.0bn through long-term bonds. Net debt 111.4% of GDP. The budget bill is due 2 Oct.
Why it matters. France's debt has reached its highest share of the economy since just after the Second World War, as investors already charge it the most over Germany since at least 2019.
Next. France presents its 2027 budget bill on 2 October.
France plans a record €340bn of bond sales for 2027 (AFT, 29 Sep), up from €310bn in 2026; budget bill 1 Oct
France's debt agency set its 2027 medium- and long-term issuance at €340bn net of buybacks, its largest ever, against €310bn this year and €260bn in 2022; the financing need is €339.7bn, €28bn more than 2026. Public debt is projected at 121.7% of GDP in 2027; the government targets a 5% deficit.
Why it matters. France will have to borrow more next year than ever before, much of it to refinance cheap pandemic-era debt at today's higher rates, just as investors already charge it the most over Germany since at least 2019.
Next. The government presents its 2027 budget on 1 October; markets will judge whether its 5% deficit target is credible.
France's 10Y spread over Bunds hits +119 bp on 29 Sep, widest since at least 2019; 2027 budget due 1 Oct
France's 10-year yield premium over Germany rose to 119 bp (Bloomberg: 120 bp on 30 Sep), +34 bp in a month; the 5-year spread is +75 bp (+25 bp in a month). It comes the day after a public-sector strike over a fourth year of frozen pay, and before Lecornu's government presents a 2027 budget with a €54bn savings 'effort' on 1 Oct.
Why it matters. France now pays about 1.2 percentage points more than Germany to borrow for ten years, the most since at least 2019, as it prepares a budget that must cut spending against strikes and a fragile parliament.
Next. The government presents its 2027 budget on 1 October; a no-confidence vote or rating action would follow in the coming weeks.
France's 10Y spread over Bunds hits +128 bp on 30 Sep, +18 bp in a week; 2027 budget presented 1 Oct
France's 10-year yield closed 30 Sep at 4.87%, 128 bp over Germany (previous high since 2019: +119, a day earlier); the 5-year spread is +84 bp. The 2027 budget bill, with about €54bn of savings and debt projected at 121.7% of GDP in 2027 (119.3% in 2026), went to the Council of Ministers on 1 Oct; parliament votes on 17 Nov.
Why it matters. France now pays 1.28 points more than Germany to borrow for ten years, the widest gap since at least 2019, as it presents a budget meant to cut €54bn with debt still rising toward 122% of output.
Next. The French parliament votes on the 2027 budget on 17 November; spreads over the Netherlands and Finland show whether the worry spreads beyond France.
France's 2027 budget (1 Oct): €54bn effort, deficit 5.4% → 5.0% of GDP; public pay and most pensions frozen
Finance minister Lescure presented the 2027 budget bill on 1 October: €54bn of savings, €43bn of it new measures, a freeze on public-sector pay and most pensions, caps on local-government and health spending, and fewer payroll-tax breaks. The deficit target is 5.0% of GDP in 2027 after 5.4% in 2026, with 3% still pencilled in for 2029; France's ten-year yield reached 4.96%, its highest since July 2002.
Why it matters. France is cutting spending while its borrowing costs are at their highest in 24 years; whether markets accept the plan decides how much more France pays to borrow than Germany, and freezes on pay and pensions cut household income just as the economy slows.
Next. Parliament's first debates on the budget through October, and whether France's ten-year borrowing cost over Germany's keeps widening from 1.28 percentage points.
France's 10-year spread over Germany passes 130 bp on 1 Oct, widest since 2012; Italy's widens to 106 bp
France's ten-year yield reached about 4.95% on 1 October against Germany's 3.64%, a gap above 130 basis points, the widest since the 2012 euro crisis, a day after the €54bn 2027 budget. Italy's gap to Germany widened to 105.7 bp, its widest since June 2025; markets price the ECB deposit rate near 2.81% by December.
Why it matters. Investors now charge France more over Germany than at any time since the 2012 euro crisis, and the pressure has started spreading to Italy; that raises borrowing costs for the euro area's indebted governments.
Next. The French budget debate in parliament through October and the next credit-rating reviews.
Sumitomo Mitsui DS AM sells all its French government bonds (2 Oct); French 10Y hit 4.96% on 1 Oct, highest since 2002
The Japanese asset manager sold its entire French government bond holding on fiscal concerns, moving into German Bunds and short-dated JGBs (Bloomberg, 2 Oct). France's 10-year yield touched 4.963% on 1 Oct, its highest since July 2002, and the spread over Bunds hit 133 bp intraday (Reuters benchmarks; ~141 bp on other benchmarks overnight), while Italy's widened to 108 bp, widest since May 2025.
Why it matters. A large Japanese investor walking away from French government bonds shows France's borrowing costs are now driven by doubts over its public finances, and the worry has begun to reach Italy.
Next. Whether other foreign investors follow, and how France's 2027 budget fares in a divided parliament in the coming weeks.
France's 10-year spread over Germany hits 152bp on 2 Oct, widest since 2011; +38bp in a week
The gap between French and German ten-year yields reached 152 basis points on 2 October (143 at the 1 October close, 128 a day earlier), after the 2027 budget; France's ten-year yield touched 4.96% on 1 October, its highest since 2002. Candriam's CIO warned the sell-off is nearing euro-crisis stress and that the ECB is not a reliable backstop; euro-area spreads widened with France on 1 October.
Why it matters. Investors now demand 1.5 percentage points more to lend to France than to Germany for ten years, the most since the 2011 euro crisis, as doubts grow over France's budget and its debt of 119% of GDP.
Next. Rating agencies review France in October; whether other euro countries' borrowing costs follow France's will show whether this stays French.
France's 5-year spread over Germany +77bp in 3 months to +102bp (1 Oct), outpacing the 10-year's +65bp
French five-year yields have risen 77 basis points over German ones in three months, to 102, against 65 for the ten-year (to 143). Until September the widening sat at the long end.
Why it matters. France's five-year borrowing costs are now rising faster than its ten-year costs relative to Germany's, a sign investors worry about the next few years, not only the long run.
Next. The coming week's French auctions and any rating action will show whether the short end keeps leading.
Euro hits 17-month low of $1.116 on 5 Oct as French debt fears spread; Spain calls snap election for 29 Nov
The euro fell to $1.1161 on Monday, its lowest since May 2025, after France's ten-year spread over Germany ended last week at about 140 bp (+34 bp, the biggest weekly rise in 17 years) and stood near 145 bp on Monday. Spain's Sánchez called an election for 29 November after parliament rejected his housing decrees; Commerzbank calls the dynamics 'reminiscent of a sovereign debt crisis'.
Why it matters. When a country's borrowing costs rise and its currency falls at the same time, investors are pulling money out rather than just demanding a higher rate, and that pattern has historically spread to other indebted euro countries.
Next. Whether Italian and Spanish borrowing costs keep rising with France's this week, and Spain's campaign ahead of the 29 November vote.
France's five-year default insurance hits ~87bp on 5 Oct, highest since 2013; two-year yield swings ~76bp intraday
On 5 Oct French five-year credit default swaps traded around 87bp, their highest since 2013. France's two-year yield spiked almost 76bp intraday before falling back to about 3.67% (German two-year ~3.01%); the ten-year retreated to 4.83% after touching 4.96% last week.
Why it matters. The price of insuring against a French default is at its highest since the euro crisis, and short-term French borrowing costs swung wildly: stress that used to sit in long-term debt is reaching near-term financing.
Next. Closing French two- and five-year yields this week, and whether Dutch and Finnish borrowing costs start to follow France's.
France's finance minister (WSJ, 7 Oct): selloff argues for 'shorter maturity' debt; ministry says strategy unchanged
Roland Lescure told the WSJ that the shape of the yield curve would lead France toward shorter maturities, 'at the margin'. The finance ministry then said its issuance strategy is unchanged but confirmed France has issued less debt of 30 years and longer because primary dealers report weaker demand for it in recent months.
Why it matters. France's finance minister said rising long-term borrowing costs argue for issuing shorter debt, and the ministry confirmed it has sold less 30-year debt because demand has weakened. A government that funds itself shorter pays less now but must refinance sooner; should the strain persist, it could reach France's short-term borrowing costs as well.
Next. France's next long-term bond auction in early November and any change to its 2027 funding plan.