US 10Y +15 bp to 5.11% on 23 Sep; 30Y touched 5.45% on 24 Sep, highest since 2004
11 items, from 24 Sep 2026 to 7 Oct 2026, oldest first.
Markets ·
US 10Y +15 bp to 5.11% on 23 Sep; 30Y touched 5.45% on 24 Sep, highest since 2004
A global sell-off after a hot US flash PMI (strong activity, energy-driven prices) with Brent near $105: on 23 Sep the 1M held (+2 bp) while the 2Y rose 14 bp and the 5Y 16 bp, and markets put 64% on an October Fed hike (11% a month ago; CME via CNN), a week after the Fed's September hike. France's and Germany's 10Y are at 2008 highs and Japan's at 3.08%, a 1996 high.
US 7Y auction (24 Sep) clears at 5.085%, highest since Apr 1993, after the 5Y (23 Sep) tailed 3.1 bp
Treasury sold ~$44bn of 7-year notes at 5.085% against 5.078% when-issued, bid-to-cover 2.42 (2.50 in August), indirects 57.2% (~61%). A day earlier the $70bn 5-year cleared at 5.033%, a 3.1 bp tail, bid-to-cover 2.21 (average 2.33), indirects 54.3% (average 65.2%) and dealers left with 15.8%.
Japan 10Y at 3.08% (+10 bp), highest since Aug 1996; US 30Y hit 5.50% on 24 Sep, highest since 2004
The sell-off reached Japan as it reopened after Silver Week, following the weak US 5Y and 7Y auctions; the US 10Y is 5.18% (+7 bp), GB 10Y 5.38% (+13), FR 10Y 4.66% (+15), and a $6bn Treasury buyback did not stop the long end. Norges Bank hiked 25 bp to 4.50% on 24 Sep and said it may hike again.
US 10Y yield hits 5.23% on 28 Sep, highest since 2007; 30Y 5.54%; ~70% odds of an October Fed hike
Treasury yields rose about 5 bp on Monday 28 Sep, taking the 10-year to 5.23% (highest since mid-2007) and the 30-year to 5.54% (highest since 2004, above last week's 5.50%). Futures price roughly 70% odds of another 25 bp Fed hike in October, after Trump rejected Iran's truce offer and oil rebounded.
Why it matters. US ten-year borrowing costs are now the highest in 19 years, and markets expect the Fed to raise rates again, which pushes up mortgage and business borrowing costs just as the jobs market looks soft.
Next. US September jobs report on Friday 2 October; the Fed's next decision is in late October.
US 5y5y forward +33 bp in a week to 5.42% (28 Sep); 10Y 5.24%, highest since 2007; 30Y 5.56%, since 2004
The US five-year rate five years ahead rose 33 bp in the week to 28 Sep and 46 bp in a month, as Trump rejected Iran's offer to reopen Hormuz (Brent back toward $107) on top of a September PMI of 58.4. The 2Y is up ~60 bp in September, the 10Y ~50 bp; Germany's 5y5y rose 22 bp in the week.
Why it matters. Markets now expect US interest rates to stay much higher for years ahead, not just in the next few months; that raises the cost of every long-term loan, from mortgages to government debt.
Next. US job openings (29 Sep) and September payrolls (2 Oct) will show whether the strong-growth story behind the move holds.
UK sells £4.25bn of 10-year gilts at 5.38% on 29 Sep, highest auction yield since Sep 1999 (Aug: 5.16%)
Britain's Debt Management Office sold £4.25bn of 10-year gilts at an average 5.38% on 29 Sep, up from 5.16% at the same line's August sale, ahead of an October budget.
Why it matters. The UK government now pays more to borrow for ten years than at any auction since 1999, part of a global rise in long-term borrowing costs that squeezes budgets.
Next. The UK budget in October will show whether the government answers with tax rises or spending cuts.
US 30-year yield hits 5.61% on 29 Sep, highest since June 2002, sixth straight daily rise; Fed's Williams calls it term premium
The 30-year Treasury reached 5.613% intraday on 29 Sep as oil fell, with the 10-year at 5.24-5.26%, highest since 2007; long yields rose despite a dovish Fed speech. New York Fed's Williams said yields driven by term premium or supply tighten conditions and do some of the Fed's work, not shifting inflation expectations; he still expects one more hike this year.
Why it matters. US long-term borrowing costs are at their highest in 24 years and rose even as oil prices fell, which points to worries about government debt rather than inflation alone.
Next. US jobs report on Friday 2 Oct and the Treasury's quarterly borrowing announcement in early November.
US 10-year yield touches 5.342% on 1 Oct, above its 2007 peak and highest since early 2002; 30-year 5.68%
The US ten-year Treasury yield rose as high as 5.342% on 1 October, past its 2007 peak to the highest since early 2002, with the thirty-year at about 5.68%; the benchmark posted its biggest quarterly rise this century in Q3. The sell-off is global: Reuters reports the UK thirty-year gilt above 6% for the first time since 1998.
Why it matters. Long-term US borrowing costs are at a 24-year high, which feeds directly into mortgage rates and the cost of government debt; if they keep rising while the economy slows, the usual flight to safety is not working.
Next. The US jobs report for September on 2 October, and the Federal Reserve's meeting on 27-28 October.
UK 30-year gilt yield hits 6.03% on 1 Oct, highest since 1998; 10Y 5.51%, highest since 2007; UK banks −4.1%
Thirty-year gilt yields rose as high as 6.029% and ten-year to 5.510% on 1 October. The FTSE 350 banks index fell 4.1%, its largest one-day drop since 5 May (NatWest −5.2%, Lloyds −4.4%, HSBC −4.3%), after Sky News reported bank chiefs were summoned to meet Chancellor Healey ahead of the 28 October budget, with bank taxes expected.
Why it matters. Britain's long-term borrowing cost has hit 6% for the first time since 1998, and bank shares fell on signs the government will tax lenders to cover rising debt costs.
US 30-year yield hits a fresh 24-year high near 5.71% on 7 Oct as Brent returns above $100; 30-year gilt 6.02%
On 7 October the US 30-year Treasury yield rose to about 5.70-5.72%, above its 1 October high of 5.68%, and the 10-year reached about 5.32-5.35%, ahead of a $39bn 10-year auction the same day and a 30-year auction on 8 October. Brent rose about 1.9% to $102.50 a day after falling below $100, and the UK 30-year gilt yield was 6.02%, with UK swaps pricing over one percentage point of Bank of England hikes by end-2027.
Why it matters. Long-term borrowing costs in the United States and Britain are at their highest in about a quarter century and rose again as oil climbed back above $100. If the coming auctions find buyers only at higher yields, this might mark governments' financing needs, not only inflation, setting long-term rates; mortgage and corporate borrowing costs would follow.
Next. US 10-year auction on 7 October and 30-year auction on 8 October; Fed minutes on 7 October.
US 10-year auction clears at 5.30% on 7 Oct, highest since Nov 2000, yet draws strong demand: bid-to-cover 2.77
The Treasury sold $39bn of 10-year notes at 5.30%, the highest auction yield since November 2000, about 1.7 basis points below the pre-auction market level; bids covered the offer 2.77 times (2.71 in September) and indirect bidders, including foreign central banks, took 80.3% against a ten-auction average of 72.4%. The 10-year yield had touched 5.35% earlier in the day, its highest since 2002.
Why it matters. The US government sold ten-year debt at the highest yield since 2000, but buyers took it readily and foreign official demand was above average. This is evidence against the idea that investors are refusing to fund US deficits; it suggests instead that they are willing to lend, but only at higher rates.
Next. The US 30-year bond auction on 8 October and the Treasury's borrowing plan on 4 November.